Zoho's Sridhar Vembu predicts what could happen if AI takes over coding, and techies become jobless

As conversations grow louder around artificial intelligence replacing human jobs, Zoho founder Sridhar Vembu has said the issue is not about jobs disappearing, but about how people will earn money in a system where machines do most of the work. In a recent post on X, Vembu explained that even if AI automates software development entirely, it does not mean people will have nothing to do.

'We are nowhere close to full automation'

“On the subject of AI and jobs: Hypothetically, if all software development were to be automated — I want to emphasise that we are nowhere close to that goal — and all software engineers such as myself are out of work, it is not like human beings will have nothing to do,” he wrote.

He added that automation will lead to cheaper goods and services, which may appear positive on the surface. However, Vembu raised a bigger concern: how will people afford these goods if they don't have steady income?

‘Breathing air costs us zero’

Vembu argued that the cost of many AI- and robot-made products could fall to almost nothing. “The price of all the robot-made goods and all the AI-made and AI-supported software would drop massively and be close to zero or zero. Breathing air costs us zero and we don’t complain about it,” he wrote.

But cheaper goods won’t solve the problem, he said, unless income distribution is addressed. The challenge lies in ensuring that people continue to earn, even when fewer workers are needed due to automation.

‘This is a political economy issue’

Calling it a “problem of political economy,” Vembu urged governments to step in. “This is fundamentally an economic distribution problem, a problem of political economy and not purely a technological problem. One key part is for governments to crack down on monopolies, particularly tech monopolies,” he said.

He noted that the discussion should move beyond the assumption that technology alone will define the future of work.

AI’s real-world impact still modest

Vembu also advised against giving in to hype around AI's ability to rapidly cut costs or jobs. Despite industry claims of major disruption, he pointed out that data suggests the actual impact of AI on employment and productivity remains limited.

He cited a study by Anders Humlum and Emilie Vestergaard, titled Large Language Models, Small Labor Market Effects, which examined the use of AI, including chatbots, in Denmark. The research found that even with a rise in AI-related investment, there have been no major changes in job patterns or productivity.

Separating the signal from the noise

Vembu’s comments come at a time when AI is often seen as a force that will upend traditional work models. He called for a more balanced view and urged stakeholders to look at evidence before accepting extreme predictions. While acknowledging the advances in AI, he said its real effects on the job market are yet to match the level of attention the subject receives.